Modeling Land-use and Land-cover Change

Models are used in a variety of fields, including land change science, to better understand the dynamics of systems, to develop hypotheses that can be tested empirically, and to make predictions and/or evaluate scenarios for use in assessment activities. Modeling is an important component of each of the three foci outlined in the science plan of the Land-use and -cover change (LUCC) project (Turner et al. 1995) of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP). In Focus 1, on comparative land-use dynamics, models are used to help improve our understanding of the dynamics of land-use that arise from human decision-making at all levels, households to nations. These models are supported by surveys and interviews of decision makers. Focus 2 emphasizes development of empirical diagnostic models based on aerial and satellite observations of spatial and temporal land-cover dynamics. Finally, Focus 3 focuses specifically on the development of models of land-use and -cover change (LUCC) that can be used for prediction and scenario generation in the context of integrative assessments of global change.